Investing Insights

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2025’s Winners and Losers, from Gold to Small Cap Stocks to the 60/40 Portfolio
This year’s uncertainty is producing a somewhat surprising group of winning and losing asset classes. And there are still two months to go in 2025. Many investors are rerouting their investments into different asset classes because of geopolitical risks like the US trade war, elevated inflation, and high interest rates. A more recent development is the budget battle in Washington, D.C. While the macro environment is pressure-testing portfolios, it’s also serving as a reminder about the benefits of diversification. So, which asset classes are leading and lagging as 2025 prepares to wrap up? And how’s the classic 60/40 portfolio holding up? Morningstar portfolio strategist Amy Arnott has examined the data.The hunt for cockroaches may produce opportunities for patient investors. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reacted to First Brands’ and Tricolor’s bankruptcies saying, “When you see one cockroach there are probably more.” Dan Kemp, chief investment research officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, says people are looking for more cockroaches to emerge due to weak lending standards via private credit. Despite the bankruptcies primarily involving the US markets, European banks took the hit. Kemp says there are bargains and more could surface if there are additional bankruptcies.Can the Gold Rush Continue? Warning Signs for InvestorsOn this episode: Market volatility has recently increased. Can you talk about what’s fueling it? We’re going to talk about asset classes that are winning and losing so far this year. Let’s start with the leaders. Gold hit record highs this year, but a sharp selloff this week has stopped the rally. Who’s been buying gold?Cryptocurrencies have been on a tear despite a recent big selloff due to the US trade war. The volatile sector has rebounded. What’s driving its performance?We’ve talked on the podcast in the spring about the outperformance of international stocks. Is the streak still going, and do overseas opportunities still exist? We’re now focusing on the three losing asset classes. The real estate sector is having a tough year. Can you give us the details? Why are US small-cap stocks and some bond segments lagging? How is the government shutdown affecting the demand for US Treasuries? Could this affect their safe-haven status?The US dollar isn’t having a great year either. Could the world’s reserve currency weaken even more? How has the popular 60/40 portfolio—made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds—performed? What about other popular portfolios, such as the three-fund portfolio or the more diversified portfolio your team looked at in the Diversification Landscape? What’s the takeaway for investors as they brace for more market volatility?The stock market tumbled earlier this month, and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and Ethereum fell with it. There’s the argument that crypto can serve as an effective diversifier for stocks. What’s your take, and what has filled the safe haven role this year?In this week’s Markets Brief, you wrote about weaknesses in the financial services sector and a so-called cockroach hunt. Can you explain what’s going on, and how patient investors can find opportunities?What do you plan to highlight in next week’s Markets Brief? What to watch from Morningstar. The Stock Market Is Ultra-Concentrated. Here’s How to Manage the Risks.New Crypto ETFs Are Coming. Here's How Investors Can PrepareHow Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4 Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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21:39
The Stock Market Is Ultraconcentrated, and It Could Get Worse. Here’s How to Manage the Risks.
Over the past few years, just a few large-cap technology stocks have powered the stock market’s returns. That trend shows no signs of abating anytime soon, as demand for artificial intelligence continues to send the tech sector higher. A highly concentrated market can—and has—turbocharged returns, but it also comes with downsides. As tech stocks soar, fund investors may find themselves with portfolios that are significantly less diverse than expected thanks to the outsize influence of a handful of firms like Nvidia NVDA and Microsoft MSFT. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Wealth, discusses how today’s narrow market compares with history and how investors can mitigate concentration risk in their portfolios. Morningstar Wealth is part of a registered investment advisor, Morningstar Investment Management.https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whatever-happened-broadening-stock-market-rally On this episode: What do strategists mean when they talk about concentration risk? How did today’s narrow market develop? What forces and trends brought us here? How unusual is today’s narrow stock market compared with history? When the market has been concentrated in the past, what has caused that concentration to dissipate? Are the risks associated with high concentration greater for passive index investors? Why? Wall Street has been warning about concentration risk for the better part of two years. But stocks are still hitting record highs, and the weightiest stocks are still performing the best. Why do some strategists say they aren’t as concerned about concentration risk? Do investors really need to be worried? What are some strategies investors can use to mitigate the risk of a highly concentrated market without leaving too much upside on the table? What’s the most important thing investors should remember right now? What to watch from Morningstar. New Crypto ETFs Are Coming. Here's How Investors Can Prepare How Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend Traps Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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13:11
New Crypto ETFs Are Coming. Here's How Investors Can Prepare
ETF Share Classes Are a Go for Dimensional: Here’s What Investors Need to Know On this episode: What was your reaction to the SEC removing these regulatory hurdles? Let’s first start with the rule change regarding crypto ETFs. Can you explain what new investment choices could be available, and what would they track? How soon could firms release new crypto ETFs? They’re already spot crypto ETFs trading. Could new competition push down fees overall? How have crypto ETFs performed so far in 2025? What crypto ETFs do Morningstar consider solid choices for investors? Morningstar considers crypto a speculative or high-risk asset. Will you remind investors why that is? Let’s switch to the SEC’s other recent rule change. It has approved Dimensional Fund Advisors to add an ETF share class to its mutual funds. Can you explain what an ETF share class is and provide a brief history lesson on it? More than 70 asset managers have banded together to get permission to offer dual share class funds. How often does that happen, and why in this case? What do individual investors stand to gain from new ETF share classes? Let’s flip it. What could they lose? What is the takeaway for investors as a new wave of crypto ETFs and ETF share classes arrive?We talked on last week’s Investing Insights about how a US government shutdown would stop the release of economic data, like the monthly jobs report. How could a shortage of data affect the Federal Reserve and others who depend on this information?Let’s discuss this week’s Markets Brief column. You wrote that the stock market could be on the verge of a so-called “melt up.” Can you explain what that is, and why cycles like this can be dangerous for investors? What are you tracking for next week’s Markets Brief column? What to watch from Morningstar. How Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4 Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend TrapsShould You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates? Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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19:49
How Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4
Investors’ exuberance is fueling this year’s stock rally, but will key economic risks dampen the market’s mood? The current bull run has lifted stocks from their springtime lows to higher levels in autumn. The artificial intelligence boom is one of the big factors driving it. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is dealing with the challenging situation of balancing the weakening job market and stubborn inflation. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in the third quarter, but the path forward from here is less certain. Morningstar Inc Senior Markets Reporter Sarah Hansen discusses seven key market factors you should watch in Q4 2025.Nvidia’s investment of up to $100 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI could shatter records. The big bet is helping feed two simple narratives about the AI era, according to Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. First, there’s too much investment in the technology, and booms tend to lead to busts. Second, AI has changed the rules of investing and returns. Kemp cautions investors to remember that there are a wide range of possible outcomes than these easy stories. On this episode:You examine the highs and lows during each quarter and write about it. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from Q3? Stocks are climbing higher despite a lot of risks. What signals is the market ignoring, and could it be at its own peril? The AI boom is driving what’s going on in the market. Mega-cap tech companies are making huge investments. Where’s the money going, and how long is this level of spending expected to continue? The hot IPO market has benefited from AI. Some of the most successful IPOs this year involved the industry. Can you describe this revival? The first interest rate cut of 2025 is in the books. The Federal Reserve pointed to the softening job market as one reason for the move. What are strategists telling you as the markets await the Fed’s next move? Inflation is still not tamed and hovering above the Fed’s 2% target. There are expectations that tariffs could raise prices for a while. What are the outlooks from Morningstar and other strategists? As the Fed cuts rates, short-term yields will come down. What about the rest of the bond market? Where do people see the risks? The federal funding fight is continuing in Washington, D.C. Let’s timestamp this moment. It’s Tuesday, Sept. 30. The US government would shut down on Oct. 1 if there’s not an agreement. How does uncertainty like this affect the markets, and what should investors think? Earnings season is coming up in a couple weeks. What is your team watching for? What’s the takeaway for investors as we enter Q4?We talked on last week’s Investing Insights about inflation. The Federal Reserve’s preferred tracker showed inflation slightly ticked up in August as forecasters expected. It also revealed consumer spending rose. What do you think that’s signaling about the US economy? In this week’s Markets Brief column, you highlighted Nvidia’s potentially record-breaking investment. The chipmaker announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. How should investors think about this deal?New economic data is due out this week. What are you tracking for next week’s Markets Brief? Read about topics from this episode. 13 Charts on Q3’s Tech-Driven Stock Rally Will the AI Boom in Semiconductor Stocks Continue? What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve The Fed’s ‘Difficult Situation’: Reading Between the Lines of the September Dot Plot Forecasts for August PCE Report Shows Some Cooling, but Tariff Impacts Persist What Investors Need to Know About a US Government Shutdown Markets Brief: Nvidia’s AI Spending Spree Raises Boom and Bust Fears What to watch from Morningstar. Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend Traps Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors Read what our team is writing.Sarah HansenDan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend Traps
It might be tempting to buy dividend stocks with the highest yields, but not all dividend payers are safe. Those big payouts could be signaling that a company’s fundamentals are cracking. Looming financial risks could wreak havoc on income-focused investors’ portfolios. But there are ways to spot dividend traps. Morningstar Indexes strategist and columnist Dan Lefkovitz explains how to avoid the risks.Both healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are lagging the broader stock market this year, but for different reasons.Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, explored what’s behind it in this week’s Markets Brief column. He says consumer defensive stocks are falling from high valuations, while healthcare stocks are facing significant headwinds like politics and earnings growth. He reminds investors that’s why it’s important to understand not only what you own in your portfolio, but why you own it as well. On this episode:What is a dividend trap, and under what conditions do they tend to develop? You and your team published research on dividend traps just before Dow Chemical DOW cut its dividend in half over the summer. How does your research explain what happened with Dow? Other well-known brands have also slashed their dividend payouts since 2020. The list includes Shell, Walgreens, and Intel. What warning signs were these companies flashing before their cuts? You have written about how income-focused investors can avoid dividend traps. Let’s start with step number one on how to spot them. What is the payout ratio, and what does it tell us about a company’s health?The second step focuses on a company’s durable competitive advantage or economic moat. Can you describe what that reveals?Your team weeds out dividend payers using a third step that relies on Distance to Default. How does that work, and what did you all find out? How can investors protect their dividend income from risks? Would portfolio diversification help? What’s the key takeaway to spot dividend traps?We discussed on last week’s Investing Insights that you would focus on the market moves following the Fed’s quarter-point cut. How have the US dollar and bond prices reacted? In this week’s Markets Brief column, you zoomed in on the lagging performance of healthcare and consumer defensive stocks. What’s important for investors to know? New data on inflation from the Fed’s preferred tracker is set to come out Friday, September 26th. Inflation is hovering above the Fed’s 2% target. What are the markets’ expectations, and what would a surprise in the data mean for the near future? Read about topics from this episode. Not All Dividend Stocks Are Safe. Here’s How to Avoid Dividend Traps What Investors Can Learn from Dow’s 50% Dividend Cut 7 Things You May Not Know About Dividends The 10 Best Dividend Stocks Does Dividend Investing Still Work? Construction Rules for the Morningstar Indexes Distance to Default Markets Brief: AI Investment is Massive in a Cyclical Industry. Will This Time Be Different? What to watch from Morningstar. Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates? What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold InvestorsDo Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue? Read what our team is writing.Dan Lefkovitz Dan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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14:49