Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets.
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/
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32:59
Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?
Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?
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22:42
Recession Risks & Reflexivity
Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.
To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg
Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/
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36:18
Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!
This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.
Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg
Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg
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32:05
The Bond Vigilantes Are Here
Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US.
Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso Peccatiello
Want to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent Donnelly
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
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