Real Estate’s in Trouble as Economy Slows, Says Hines
Property markets are headed for trouble as the US economy slows and interest rates stay high, according to Hines, the global real estate investment manager.“We will probably see a bigger wave of assets in distress,” Alfonso Munk, who runs the firm’s debt business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What I’m worried about is the operating distress if we get into economic headwinds.” Munk and Alamutu also discuss investment opportunities and risks by property type, region and country, as well as the impact of the trade war on real estate markets worldwide.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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52:06
Fridson Sees High Yield Going Distressed in Recession
More corporate debt will plunge into distress when the US economy tanks, Marty Fridson, chief executive officer of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy. “I have high confidence that we will get back to 1,000 basis points on the high-yield index as a whole at the worst point of the next recession,” the veteran credit strategist tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Spencer Cutter in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Corporate bonds trading at 1,000 basis points over Treasuries are usually seen by markets as being in distress, with a high likelihood of default. Fridson and Cutter also discuss energy sector bond opportunities, corporate bond default rates, ratings trends, the Federal Reserve put and liability management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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44:59
BlackRock Sees Credit Pain as Tariff Confusion Reigns
Risky corporate debt markets have room to fall further to reflect the damage of ongoing trade wars, according to BlackRock, the $11.6 trillion money manager. “We’re likely to see spreads widen from here as we see further deterioration in risk assets,” Mitch Garfin, the firm’s co-head of leveraged finance, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If this uncertainty continues for another quarter, two quarters, three quarters — that could lead to a more significant downturn.” Garfin and Schiffman also discuss private credit relative value, distressed exchanges, technology sector opportunities, portfolio trading and auto sector risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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49:13
Trade War Is Driving Retailers Nuts, Says Alix’s Etlin
Tariff chaos has tossed retailers into a crisis similar to Covid in 2020, leaving them unable to plan ahead, according to AlixPartners, the financial advisory and global consulting firm. “It’s a little crazy and retailers are canceling orders,” Holly Etlin, a partner at the firm and restructuring veteran, tells Bloomberg News’ Reshmi Basu and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. There’s a “real crisis, everybody going nuts,” she added, referring to pricing, inventory and shipping decisions that retailers are trying to make. Etlin also discusses the impact of elevated bankruptcy costs, the outlook for more coercive liability management exercises, how retailers are using asset-based loans as a lifeline and the turnaround of Tailored Brands.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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43:10
Distressed Specialist Aptior Sees Opportunity in Chaos
Global market turmoil opens a window for credit investors in companies with too much debt, according to London-based Aptior Capital, which specializes in distressed debt and rescue finance. “All this volatility, it throws up even more opportunities,” founder Rudi Singh tells Bloomberg News’ Giulia Morpurgo and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “These are very good businesses and it really has been the old adage of good company, bad cap structure.” Morpurgo and Alamutu also discuss the firm’s target of 20% returns, a shift to Europe by US investors, liability management, real estate and auto sector stress. This episode was recorded on April 2.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.
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