Trumponomics

Everything we think we know about recessions is wrong—or at least mostly wrong—according to ExxonMobil Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed. He argues downturns aren’t the inevitable result of overheated booms and don’t arrive simply because expansions last too long. In his new book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It, which spans 250 years of US and UK economic history, Goodspeed contends recessions are typically the product of sudden, overlapping shocks—particularly to energy and food—that derail otherwise healthy expansions.
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Oil and gas traders are confronting a potential worst-case scenario after the US-Israeli strike on Iran Saturday: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery is shut and Iran has hit Qatar’s giant liquified natural gas export facility.
On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders speaks to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. Together they unpack the unsettlingly wide range of outcomes from the war, and how Russia will gain economically the longer the conflict continues.
Read more:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-04/iran-war-the-most-precious-commodity-is-water-not-oil

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On this bonus episode, Chancellor Rachel Reeves says Britain's pending trade deal with the US won't affect its view on the conflict with Iran, as she discusses the UK's economic future. The chancellor sat down with Bloomberg's Head of Economics and Government Stephanie Flanders after issuing her Spring Statement on Tuesday, as she seeks to convince markets and voters that Britain’s public finances are resilient enough to weather the fallout from the conflict in Iran and rising global energy prices.
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'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons.

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On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Josh Green, national correspondent at Bloomberg Businessweek, and Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics, about President Donald Trump’s upbeat economic message during his State of the Union address and the reality on the ground. Affordability fears remain despite government data indicating slowing inflation, and the Supreme Court ruling upending Trump's tariff strategy has thrown fresh uncertainty into the mix. Our guests ask whether those numbers will outweigh shaky consumer sentiment, tariff turmoil and growing anxiety over artificial intelligence ahead of the midterms.
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