#268 Michael Pento: The Grand Reconciliation Coming - Credit, Stock, and Real Estate Bubbles Will Burst
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 268, warning of a coming "grand reconciliation" where credit, stock, and real estate bubbles will burst. He argues the US debt is unsustainable, with the next recession triggering $4-6 trillion annual deficits. Pento predicts Trump will replace Powell with an "obsequious sycophant" in May 2026 who will slash rates to zero, causing long-term rates to spike and creating a "debt death spiral." He recommends hard assets like gold and platinum, which he expects will "scream higher" in 2026, and emphasizes the critical importance of active management to navigate the coming crisis.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Intro and welcome Michael01:01 - Macro picture06:16 - Grand reconciliation coming: debt, real estate, stocks 11:27 - Case for platinum and gold - platinum breakout 14:32 - Hard assets will "scream higher" in 2026 17:11 - Fed should be defunct - market should set rates 22:08 - Next recession: deficit jumps to $4-6 trillion 25:21 - US debt32:29 - 202634:38 - Next Fed chair will be "obsequious sycophant" 38:03 - Closing remarks
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#267 Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves: Fed Is 'Behind the Curve' as We're Already in Recession and There's More Than One Economy in America
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, join Julia La Roche in-studio on FOMC day, where they break down the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, the state of the economy, and the interest rate outlook.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.mufgresearch.com/ George's Twitter/X: https://x.com/bondstrategist QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/073521165500:00 - Danielle: Fed "willfully blind" to economic reality 02:52 - Record 5.3% of Americans working multiple jobs 05:00 - Real unemployment is 4.5-4.6%, not reported 4.2% 08:07 - Debate: Is the Fed being political? 10:00 - George: "More than one economy" - rates hurting different groups 16:28 - Net worth declined via both stocks and real estate in Q1 21:57 - Interest expense is fastest growing budget item 26:06 - Next Fed Chair prediction: Waller, Warsh, Bessent front-runners 32:12 - Corporate bankruptcies highest since 2010 38:49 - Danielle: US entered recession Q1 2024, back in one now 40:26 - Top 10% of earners drive 49.7% of consumption 43:52 - What keeps them up at night: False sense of security
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#266 Rick Rule: '10 Years of Reckoning' Ahead - Why Gold Could Hit $10,000
Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 266 for his quarterly appearance. In this episode, Rule predicts the US dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power over the next decade, similar to the 1970s crisis. He explains that $130 trillion in total government liabilities against $141 trillion in private wealth creates unsolvable math that can only be resolved through inflation. Rule calls Trump's presidency a failure, dismissing DOGE as fiction and tariffs as harmful taxes. He believes the US is already in recession based on oil prices and recommends gold (potentially $10,000+), uranium, and copper investments. Drawing parallels to 1968-1980, Rule expects 10-12 years of economic difficulty but says America's culture will survive. His main message: individuals must prepare financially because government support systems are unsustainable.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaSymposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=juliaTimestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro00:41 - Rule Natural Resources Symposium (July 7-11, Boca Raton)04:32 - Trump presidency assessment: DOGE failure, tariffs are taxes07:47 - 10-12 years of reckoning ahead, comparing to 1970s crisis09:34 - Prediction: US dollar will decline 75% over next decade11:46 - $130 trillion total debt vs $141 trillion private net worth18:44 - CPI vs real inflation - why the math doesn't work22:55 - Why DOGE was fiction from the start28:51 - Gold moving on purchasing power fears, could hit $10,000+38:43 - Copper supply shortages despite near-term economic weakness40:47 - "I believe we're in a recession" - oil prices signal soft demand44:31 - Fed rate cuts would signal abandoning dollar defense47:12 - Silver phases: gold leads, then generalist investors drive silver explosive moves50:23 - Uranium as "total no brainer" - billion people need electricity54:13 - Next decade different from benign 1982-2022 period55:00 - Personal responsibility: invest in yourself, society won't help
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#265 Steve Hanke: Regime Uncertainty, 80% Recession Probability & How To Fix Monetary Policy
Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 265 to discuss the economy and his new book "Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Hanke warns of an 80% recession probability by year-end, driven by regime uncertainty from Trump's policy changes and money supply contraction since April 2022. He critiques the Federal Reserve's narrow focus on interest rates while ignoring quantitative tightening and argues for putting money supply and commercial banks back at the center of monetary policy. Hanke explains how Fed policies create wealth inequality by inflating asset prices that benefit the rich, advocating for "neutrality" as the goal of monetary policy. He dismisses Trump's "big beautiful bill" as fiscally irresponsible and calls for a constitutional convention to implement a Swiss-style debt brake. The conversation covers his new book's thesis that monetary policy should focus on money supply growth rather than interest rates, with commercial banks producing 80% of the money supply through lending.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/139425726000:00 - Introduction of Professor Steve Hanke 01:28 - Regime uncertainty concept and Trump's policy changes 03:52 - Tariffs as taxes on international transactions 06:20 - 80% recession probability by end of year 08:31 - Money supply contraction since April 2022 10:51 - Bubble indicator and market complacency discussion 12:52 - Family call interruption from Dominican Republic 13:24 - Market in bubble territory explanation 16:11 - Federal Reserve critique and FOMC meeting outlook 18:27 - Quantitative tightening vs interest rate focus 19:04 - Three pillars of the book's thesis 25:46 - Neutrality as monetary policy objective 29:30 - How Fed policy creates wealth inequality 32:15 - Catalyst for writing the book 37:09 - "Big beautiful bill" critique and fiscal concerns 42:34 - Swiss debt brake constitutional solution 46:25 - Key prices to watch: gold, 10-year yields, dollar-euro, stocks
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#264 Chris Whalen: No Fed Cuts Coming, Silent Subprime Crisis Brewing & Why Gold Still Wins
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen 02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates 04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion 05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics 06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence 08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate 09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation 10:42 - Recession probability13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together 14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper 16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers 18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion 19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate 21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street 22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending 24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand 25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation 27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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