EP 134: Apple iPhones and Tensor Cores, Synopsis Earnings, Hock's Comments at Goldman
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Apple iPhone launch event, highlighting the innovations in the iPhone Air and Apple's semiconductor strategy. They delve into Synopsys's disappointing earnings report and the subsequent market reactions, as well as Broadcom's position in the semiconductor landscape. The conversation also covers Nvidia's new CPX system and the implications for the market, concluding with a discussion on the funding of the AI boom and the financial strategies of major players like Oracle and OpenAI.
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1:03:34
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1:03:34
EP 133: Broadcom Earnings, More on ASICS vs. GPUs, Google Selling TPUs?
Ben and Jay unpack why Broadcom’s “fourth customer” (~$10B) custom-ASIC win reset sentiment even after a modest beat/raise, and how that squares with hyperscalers second-sourcing away from NVIDIA in the near term. They frame the true battleground as networking—Ethernet’s ubiquity vs. NVLink’s tight integration—then differentiate GPUs’ performance-per-watt advantages from custom ASIC cost calculus, arguing that “lumpiness” (program outcomes) is not “cyclicality” (inventory swings). They stress TAM realism: it’s easy to total up CapEx, but the ROI numerator (revenue/profit) is still unknowable. Structurally, TSMC remains the default winner, with a plausible Intel Foundry financing path in the wings, while Google looks more likely to “sell capacity” for TPUs than chips. Net: GPUs keep the bulk of spend through 2030 even as select first-party silicon scales, and the market should judge claims against networking choices and workload fit—not headlines.
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43:46
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43:46
EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Nvidia and Marvell, focusing on the implications for the AI market and the challenges posed by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding China. They analyze Nvidia's growth projections, the complexities of ASICs, and the competitive landscape for AI servers, particularly highlighting Dell's position in the market. The discussion also touches on the nuances of CapEx spending and the importance of clear communication from companies to investors.
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54:59
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54:59
EP 132: Offical Gov. Stake in Intel, NVIDIA's New Scale Across Fabric, NVIDIA Earnings Preview
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent government investment in Intel, its implications for the semiconductor industry, and the competitive landscape of Nvidia's new technology. They explore the future of Intel, the challenges it faces in securing customers, and the significance of Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet announcement. The discussion also touches on the state of the analog devices market and anticipates Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, highlighting key areas of interest and potential impacts on the industry.TakeawaysThe U.S. government now owns 10% of Intel, signaling confidence in the company.The investment is part of a broader strategy to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.Intel's future hinges on securing customers and government support.Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet allows for distributed GPU clusters across locations.The competitive landscape is shifting, with Nvidia targeting Broadcom and Huawei.Analog devices are seeing mixed signals in the market, particularly in automotive.Robotics is an emerging area for analog devices, but still faces challenges.Nvidia's upcoming earnings call is highly anticipated, with expectations of strong demand.The relationship between the U.S. and China is affecting tech investments and sales.The need for a strong board and expertise in manufacturing is crucial for Intel's success.
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47:33
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47:33
EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Talking NeoClouds, Another Week for Intel!
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss various topics related to the semiconductor industry, including the implications of new regulations on companies like AMD and Nvidia, the challenges faced by cloud computing providers, the market dynamics affecting Applied Materials, and the potential government involvement in Intel's future. They explore the complexities of profitability, market competition, and the evolving landscape of technology and regulation.TakeawaysNew regulations on semiconductors may be unconstitutional but are unlikely to be challenged.Profitability concerns overshadow the earnings of cloud computing companies.Demand for GPU compute is high, but electricity constraints limit growth.Applied Materials faces uncertainty due to vague guidance and market dynamics.Government involvement in Intel could complicate the free market.The distinction between ownership and governance is crucial in state-owned enterprises.The future of AI and cloud computing is tied to infrastructure and capacity.Investors are skeptical about the viability of Neo cloud models.The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex regulatory environment.
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