More or Less

SpaceX might be the biggest IPO ever but there’s a math problem no one’s pricing in. Once you factor in capital gains, you need to believe it’ll underperform the market by ~50% just to justify selling. That creates an invisible floor under mega-cap stocks and a market increasingly detached from reality. Meanwhile: Allbirds goes from $4B to $40M and pivots to “NewBird AI.” Seed valuations hit $175M — 3x YoY, above 2021 peak. And AI labs are allegedly planting stories on each other. This week on More or Less: SpaceX’s $19B revenue / $5B losses, the AI bubble, Anthropic $800B rumors, and why fund math is breaking
Chapters:
0:00 — Waymo vs. Uber: the autonomous tipping point
8:29 — Allbirds: $4B → $40M → “NewBird AI”
12:56 — Boom Supersonic and the data center pivot
15:17 — SpaceX IPO: bulls vs. bears
16:14 — The tax problem no one is pricing in
20:16 — Can mega-cap still 50x?26:47 — SpaceX breakdown: Starlink vs. launch
28:20 — Anthropic $800B rumors
30:08 — OpenAI vs. Anthropic: leaks and competition
31:08 — The model switching problem (no real moat)
33:36 — AI behavior shift: “ask the agent”
38:17 — AI labs running oppo research
40:05 — Seed valuations surpass 2021 peak42:00 — Fund math is broken

We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/FQ5TEs_3Dq8Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch breaks down the explosive rise of AI agents and what it means for the future of software infrastructure. He joins the Morins to unpack why Anthropic cut off OpenClaw users, why the SaaS subscription model is breaking down, how agents are reshaping cloud infrastructure, and why a new wave of “supergeniuses” (from neurosurgeons to 17-year-olds) are building things no one thought possible. Plus: dreams.md, the future of personal agents, and why agents are becoming the new computer.Chapters:00:42 Intro: Guillermo Rauch, CEO and Founder of Vercel01:48 Vercel Explodes 5X Growth and AI Traffic Surge03:51 Why Anthropic Shut Down OpenClaw Users04:47 Coding Agents Are the Path to AGI07:57 70 Percent of Vercel Traffic Is Now AI09:50 SaaS Is Dead Pay Per Token Takes Over13:16 Anthropic vs OpenClaw Closed vs Open Agents14:47 The Hidden Risk of AI Data and Training16:38 Why Everyone Wants Their Own AI18:08 The Shift to Agent Native Infrastructure19:45 Vibe Coded Apps Are Going Viral21:42 The AI Wars Anthropic OpenAI Elon23:15 Dreams md Self Improving AI Agents25:44 Memory Theory of Mind and Agent Intelligence28:05 Your AI Should Travel With You30:00 Enterprise AI and Domain Expert Agents31:15 How Vercel Became an AI Native Company33:06 Hiring in the Age of AI Agents36:03 The Rise of Supergeniuses38:10 Inside Slows Creator AI Hackathon40:06 AI Agents Are the New Customers41:18 Moving Up the Stack Again42:05 What Happens in the Next 12 Months43:48 AI Will Break Cloud and SecurityWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/f43JCxhKLEgConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Sam Lessin accidentally emailed 40 of Silicon Valley's most important people using an AI bot — and that one mishap reveals everything broken about the AI security model right now. In this episode, Sam and Dave Morin (calling in from ClawCon Tokyo) argue that AI agents are quietly dismantling every security assumption the internet was built on: from open-source package trust chains to content moderation walls to the entire premise of software moats. Meanwhile, Jessica Lessin shares her own Claude Code disaster that proves even careful people are one 'approve' click away from chaos. The team also tears apart OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, debate whether 10 million software developers are about to become irrelevant, and explain why a professional skier in Alaska just built the app she'd been pitching for two years — in a single afternoon.

Chapters:

We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/Gv-VUTGVNT8Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Jess and Brit take the reins on this week's More or Less — and they're not exactly missing their husbands. They're joined by Henrik Werdelin (Audos), who's building a platform that takes solo founders from zero to funded company using AI agents, and Ben Broca (Polsia), a literal one-human, zero-employee founder who argues AGI is already here. What follows is a sharp, funny debate about whether solo "donkeycorns" are the future of entrepreneurship, where AI actually hits its limits, and why defensibility in an AI world might come down to the most analog thing of all — knowing yourself and the humans you serve.

Chapters:
1:05 — Britt & Jess take over More or Less
3:15 — Meet Henrik Werdelin (Audos) & Ben Broca (Polsia)
5:00 — The Donkeycorn Era: Solo founders making millions with AI
8:15 — "AGI Is Here" — Ben's case for one founder, zero employees
10:30 — Jess vs. Ben: "My Claude can't remember" / "Skill issue"
17:00 — When AI suggested fecal transplant businesses (Henrik's wild early experiments)
19:00 — Relationship Capital: The real moat in an AI world
23:00 — Building an economy, not a tool — Ben's vision for Polsia
25:30 — Will AI democratize opportunity or just commoditize it?
32:00 — Bot Etiquette: When your AI emails psychics on your behalf
40:00 — The Sora Shutdown: "It's all just electricity"
42:30 — Is speed the only moat? Anthropic vs. OpenAI
46:30 — The Brain Gym: Why knowing yourself matters more than ever
52:00 — Wrap: SpaceX IPO, Aura IPO, and "Me, My Customer, and AI"

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Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

It’s going to be a dense episode on OpenClaw—and another classic example of how skeptical Sam is about its future, battling against Dave. The episode starts with Dave’s announcement: The OpenClaw Foundation is now a chartered Delaware nonprofit. Then: GTC. Jessica hits the floor, takes seven selfies, and watches Jensen go for three hours with no notes. Dave explains why Nvidia gave OpenClaw 30 minutes of keynote time: NemoClaw, OpenShell, enterprise guardrails, local models, on-prem everything. Jessica breaks down The Information’s story about a rogue AI agent tripping internal security at Meta—which becomes the perfect setup for a broader point: trust isn’t a feature; it’s the entire game. Then Apple. BitRig—built by the people who literally created SwiftUI—has been stuck in App Store review since November because Guideline 2.5.2 says apps can’t download and execute code that changes functionality. The security logic tracks. Apple’s selective enforcement history? Less so. The crew closes with the part nobody’s ready for: Morin’s 11-year-old just formed his first LLC for a vibe-coded iOS game, and a group of 12-year-olds at an AI school in Austin out-shipped every adult developer at ClawCon.Chapters:02:14 - NVIDIA GTC Preview & Episode Roadmap02:54 - The Rise of the "Master of Bots" Role04:39 - Bot Anxiety & the Luxury AI vs. Cheap AI Divide08:55 - NVIDIA GTC: Jensen as AI's Storyteller-in-Chief17:21 - Nemo Claw, OpenShell & NVIDIA's Big OpenClaw Moment23:02 - What Even Is OpenClaw? Sam Challenges Dave29:51 - Breaking News: Rogue AI Agent Triggers Meta Security Alert38:54 - OpenAI's Enterprise Pivot & the Anthropic Revenue Race43:00 - Apple vs. Vibe Coding Apps: The App Store Bottleneck51:34 - Kids, Claws & Cool Family Tech (Board.fun, Next Playground)We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/PYJawV55QcUConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit