PodcastTecnologiaMachine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)
Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)
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254 episodi

  • Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

    The Thermodynamic AI Computing Chip - Thomas Ahle

    28/06/2026 | 1 h 2 min
    Thomas Ahle wants Normal Computing to be the Lovable for chip design: type your intent, and a swarm of agents carries it from design through optimisation, formalisation and verification to tape-out. To get there, his team at wrote their own open-source Verilog simulator, 580,000 lines in 43 days, because commercial EDA verifiers run about $10,000 per core and there are no decent open-source compilers to build on.

    That sets up the question Tim keeps pressing: if an agent can produce a chip design, a proof, or a working program, how do you actually know it is correct? Passing 70% of tests is not the same as being right, and a single fabricated bug can cost a company a fortune. They dig into ProgramBench (rebuild a program from its tests, roughly 0% success), the difference between structure and competence, and the "understanding debt" you take on when nobody reads the code.

    From there: auto-formalisation in Lean and the AlphaProof trick of training on prove-or-disprove; why there is no single true representation of a spec (Petri nets, TLA+, Erik Curiel's "math does not represent"); and thermodynamic computing, where Normal Computing's CN101 chip is built so that its physical noise *is* the computation, settling a stochastic differential equation in hardware to invert a matrix. Plus Bayesian uncertainty, specialisation, the Chomsky hierarchy, AI slop, and whether performance is all that matters.

    Recorded in Zurich.

    Disclosure: Normal Computing paid our production and travel costs for this show. We retained full editorial control. They did not see the video before publication, and we did not show it to them or discuss it with them beforehand.

    ---
    TIMESTAMPS:
    00:00:00 Meet Thomas Ahle: the Lovable for chip design
    00:03:41 Why hardware needs formal verification
    00:06:36 Ten thousand dollars per core and a six-month agent run
    00:07:40 Rebuilding programs from tests: ProgramBench and zero percent
    00:12:15 Structure vs competence: can you learn a program from behavior?
    00:15:27 Continual learning, abstraction, and Claude as an ecosystem
    00:23:17 Autoformalization and the AlphaProof trick
    00:29:31 No single true representation: specs, Petri nets and TLA+
    00:34:43 Thermodynamic computing: when noise is the computation
    00:37:32 Bayesian uncertainty in the age of token streams
    00:41:12 Hybrid compute: vibe-coding loops, binaries and Stockfish
    00:44:44 Co-design, central-AI apps and API pricing
    00:49:45 Chain of thoughtlessness and the Chomsky hierarchy
    00:53:40 AI psychosis, slop and the broken social contract
    00:57:34 Typing it yourself, teamwork and performance vs competence

    ---
    REFERENCES:
    person:
    [00:00:10] Thomas Ahle
    https://thomasahle.com
    organization:
    [00:00:27] Normal Computing
    https://normalcomputing.com/
    paper:
    [00:11:21] ProgramBench: Can Language Models Rebuild Programs From Scratch?
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03546
    [00:31:55] Autoformalizing Memory Device Specifications with Agents
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.00058
    [00:35:20] Thermo AI and the Fluctuation Frontier
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.06584
    [00:36:40] Thermo Comp System for AI Applications
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04836
    [00:37:05] Thermodynamic Linear Algebra
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.05660
    [00:44:50] An efficient probabilistic hardware architecture for diffusion-like models
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.23972
    tool:
    other:
    [00:01:00] Building an Open-Source Verilog Simulator with AI: 580K Lines in 43 Days
    https://normalcomputing.com/blog/building-an-open-source-verilog-simulator-with-ai-580k-lines-in-43-days
    [00:02:55] Normal Computing Announces Tape-Out of the World's First Thermodynamic Computing Chip (CN101)
    https://www.normalcomputing.com/blog/normal-computing-announces-tape-out-of-worlds-first-thermodynamic-computing-chip
    [00:32:02] DRAMBench: Autoformalizing DRAM Specifications with Timed Petri Nets
    https://www.iese.fraunhofer.de/blog/drambench-autoformalizing-dram-specifications/

    ---
    ReScript: https://app.rescript.info/share/ff9684a112ab37744096adaeb097a263
  • Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

    He won a Nobel here for AlphaFold. Then he left. - John Jumper

    22/06/2026 | 53 min
    This episode is sponsored by Notion. Learn more about Notion's Developer Platform today at https://notion.com/mlstProtein folding stalled biology for fifty years. A sequence of amino acids dictates a three-dimensional shape, but reading that shape meant a year and roughly $100,000 of crystallography per structure. Then AlphaFold 2 won CASP14 so decisively the organizers called the problem essentially solved.In this documentary cut, John Jumper, who shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry and has since left DeepMind for Anthropic, walks Tim Scarfe through what the system did and, more interestingly, what it did not. The architecture gets a proper dissection: MSAs, the Evoformer, invariant point attention, the FAPE loss, and Jumper's correction of the equivariance story, which ablations valued at roughly 2.5 of 30 GDT points rather than the whole win. He is blunt about the limits. AlphaFold predicts one experiment extraordinarily well; it is not a model of the cell, it does not capture dynamics, and on a given drug target it is "wrong nine times out of ten."From there: the AlphaFold Database of 200M+ predicted structures, AlphaFold 3 and ligands, Isomorphic Labs, and Jumper's quarrel with the bitter lesson, where finite data and human hypotheses still matter. Emmanuel Nji of BioStruct Africa closes the film on what changes when work that took years now takes months, and on training the next thousand structural biologists across Africa.---TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Cold open: predicting nature with a button press00:01:03 The protein folding bottleneck and CASP00:04:39 The Nobel, the database, and the move to Anthropic00:05:50 Sponsor (Notion) and framing: what AlphaFold does not claim00:07:39 Proteins as self-assembling nanomachines00:12:24 From structures to biology: drug discovery and Midnolin00:17:37 The humility of AlphaFold: a narrow predictor00:22:18 Inside the architecture: Evoformer, IPA and FAPE00:30:20 Ruthless empiricism: ablations and 100x in data00:35:20 Predict, control, understand00:40:00 Against the bitter lesson; AlphaFold 3 as diffusion00:45:07 Intelligence, representations and AGI00:49:23 Epilogue: AlphaFold in Africa00:52:16 Closing: the case for hybrid science models---REFERENCES:organization:[00:01:55] Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP)https://predictioncenter.org/[00:04:39] The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2024/summary/[00:05:18] BioStruct Africahttps://www.biostructafrica.org/[00:18:03] Isomorphic Labshttps://www.isomorphiclabs.com/paper:[00:03:09] AlphaFold Protein Structure Databasehttps://doi.org/10.1093/nar/gkab1061[00:17:25] Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07487-w[00:22:18] Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFoldhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03819-2[00:23:10] Midnolin promotes degradation of substrates independent of ubiquitinationhttps://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh5021[00:27:00] Improved protein structure prediction using potentials from deep learninghttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1923-7tool:[00:03:09] AlphaFold Protein Structure Database (EBI)https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/[00:45:55] AlphaEvolve: a coding agent for designing advanced algorithmshttps://deepmind.google/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/other:[00:39:40] The Bitter Lessonhttp://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html---ReScript: https://app.rescript.info/share/d8cde5c221fb71e2c0f5aafe94f90dfaDisclaimer - not sponsored, editorial with us - we filmed it at GDM, London
  • Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

    When AI Decides You're a Threat — Brad Carson

    31/05/2026 | 1 h 20 min
    Brad Carson was the Army's General Counsel, served two terms in Congress and was Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. He now heads Americans for Responsible Innovation, the AI-policy advocacy group he co-founded. Keith Duggar spends roughly eighty minutes pushing back.

    SPONSOR:
    ---
    Cyber Fund built the Monastery to help founders ship products that were impossible a year ago. Applications for Batch 1 are now open.
    Apply now: https://cyber.fund
    ---

    Carson's whole case rests on one line: the genie is not out of the bottle. We have pulled dangerous tech back before. Asilomar halted recombinant DNA in 1975, and the West still controls the chips AI runs on. Calling it unstoppable, he says, is the most dangerous idea in the room.

    Then Keith drags him somewhere darker. A Palantir heat map scores you 0.73 on whether you are a combatant, and a strike follows. The model is wrong some accepted share of the time, and when it is, nobody answers for it. You cannot court-martial a model, and not even the interpretability researchers can say why it picked you.


    Note: after recording, we learned that Americans for Responsible Innovation is backed by EA-aligned philanthropy (not sponsored)

    ---
    TIMESTAMPS:
    00:00:00 From the Pentagon to AI governance
    00:04:52 Regulatory capture vs Silicon Valley networks
    00:07:56 Transparency and the Claude tier changes
    00:09:40 Tort liability when AI tools cause harm
    00:13:40 AI is a product, not a person
    00:16:01 Children, suicide, and the suicide business
    00:19:59 Opaque neural nets and the law of war
    00:25:54 Probabilistic targeting and the death of accountability
    00:28:47 The arms race fallacy: Asilomar and restraint
    00:34:02 Talking to China: track 2 talks and chip leverage
    00:39:45 Air power never wins: capital for labour
    00:43:29 Anthropic vs the Department of War
    00:51:29 Concentration, open source, and brain drain
    01:00:18 DeepSeek, Chinese culture, and AI as diplomacy
    01:12:25 Upskilling Congress and why public trust matters

    ---
    REFERENCES:
    organization:
    [00:02:45] ICRC position on autonomous weapons
    https://www.icrc.org/en/law-and-policy/autonomous-weapons
    [00:05:22] Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI)
    https://ari.us
    [00:07:20] Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
    https://a16z.com/
    [01:16:05] Office of Technology Assessment
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Technology_Assessment
    other:
    [00:03:35] Beneficial AGI 2019 Conference (Future of Life Institute, Puerto Rico)
    https://futureoflife.org/event/beneficial-agi-2019/
    [00:18:30] Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230
    [00:19:59] Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lethal_autonomous_weapon
    [00:31:35] Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Arms_Limitation_Talks
    [00:32:28] Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA (1975)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asilomar_Conference_on_Recombinant_DNA
    [00:39:45] The New Iron Triangle (ARI policy byte)
    https://ari.us/policy-bytes/the-new-iron-triangle/
    [00:48:05] Defense Production Act
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act
    person:
    [00:03:35] Anthony Aguirre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Aguirre
    [00:06:48] Dean Ball — Hyperdimensional
    https://www.hyperdimensional.co/
    [00:23:13] Neel Nanda — mechanistic interpretability
    https://www.neelnanda.io/
    [00:36:02] Jack Clark (Anthropic) on Conversations with Tyler
    https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/jack-clark/
    [00:39:15] Robert Trager — Centre for the Governance of AI
    https://www.governance.ai/team/robert-trager
    [00:41:55] Giulio Douhet
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giulio_Douhet
    [01:15:05] Don Beyer (US Congress)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Beyer
    tool:
    [00:22:19] Phalanx CIWS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS

    ---
    ReScript:
    https://app.rescript.info/public/share/9405ff35c0215b7cdae6402d41284171
    https://app.rescript.info/api/public/sessions/0a6c081b8e5fe413/pdf
  • Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

    Intelligence is collective, not artificial — Prof. Michael I. Jordan (UC Berkeley / Inria)

    21/05/2026 | 1 h 17 min
    Michael I. Jordan, described by Science magazine as the most influential computer scientist alive, has never thought of himself as an AI researcher. In this conversation he explains why that distinction matters.

    SPONSOR:
    ---
    Cyber Fund built the Monastery to help founders ship products that were impossible a year ago. Applications for Batch 1 are now open.
    Apply now: https://cyber.fund
    ---

    Jordan trained as a statistician and cognitive scientist, and his career has been spent building machine learning systems that work in the real world: supply chains, commerce, healthcare, and large economic systems. When the field rebranded itself as AI and then AGI, he did not follow. Instead he argues that the framing is wrong. AI is better understood as a collective economic system than as a race to build a disembodied superintelligence.

    We talk about why AGI is mostly a PR term, what machine learning achieved before the LLM hype cycle, and why the assistant-on-your-shoulder vision may be less compelling than it sounds. Jordan explains why explanations need to be actionable, not merely mechanistic; why AlphaFold's missing error bars matter; how prediction-powered inference changes the picture; and why drug discovery is an incentive-design problem rather than a pure pattern-matching problem.

    ERRATA: Science magazine ranked him the most influential computer scientist, not Nature

    ---
    TIMESTAMPS:
    00:00:00 Cold open: A demoralizing message to young builders
    00:02:04 CyberFund sponsor read
    00:02:50 From symbolic AI to machine learning systems
    00:05:42 Why AGI is mostly a PR term
    00:08:48 A collectivist, economic perspective on AI
    00:11:33 Why LLMs need system design, not hype
    00:14:50 Predictability beats faux understanding
    00:17:55 AlphaFold, bias, and prediction-powered inference
    00:21:48 Stop anthropomorphizing intelligence
    00:27:44 Drug discovery as an incentive problem
    00:32:29 The three-layer data market
    00:38:07 Social knowledge, markets, and culture
    00:45:39 Creator economics beyond Spotify
    00:48:30 How science-fiction AI narratives mislead young builders
    00:51:45 AI should improve humans, not replace them
    00:56:42 Safety is a property of the whole system
    00:58:12 Silicon Valley gurus and the cream off the top
    01:00:47 Game theory, mechanism design, and contracts
    01:04:39 Conformal prediction, e-values, and anytime inference
    01:08:11 A new liberal arts triangle for the AI era
    01:11:30 The Bayesian duck and markets as uncertainty reduction

    ReScript (transcript, PDF, refs etc) - https://app.rescript.info/public/share/fb68f94af29d3745c6cf6125e01328b5
    ---
    REFERENCES:
    person:
    [00:02:50] Michael I. Jordan (homepage)
    https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~jordan/
    paper:
    [00:06:01] A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06268
    [00:18:09] AlphaFold
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03819-2
    [00:20:36] Prediction-Powered Inference
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.09633
    [00:33:47] On Three-Layer Data Markets
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09697
    [01:04:39] Conformal Prediction with Conditional Guarantees
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07511
    [01:04:51] A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction
    https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v9/shafer08a.html
    [01:06:00] E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Prediction
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.13050
    [01:08:23] Computational Thinking
    https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~CompThink/papers/Wing06.pdf
    other:
    [00:28:20] How Should the FDA Test?
    https://rdi.berkeley.edu/events/sbc-assets/pdfs/Summit%20session%20speaker%20slides%20submission%20form-s1-5%20%28File%20responses%29/Slides%20in%20PDF%20%28Please%20name%20the%20submitted%20file%20as%20_firstname_-_lastname_-slides.pdf%29.%20%28File%20responses%29/27-Michael%20Jordan-Session%20V.pdf#page=15
    [00:28:40] Michael I. Jordan Session V Slides
    <truncated, see ReScript link or YT VD>
  • Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

    The AI Models Smart Enough to Know They're Cheating — Beth Barnes & David Rein [METR]

    04/05/2026 | 1 h 53 min
    Beth Barnes and David Rein on the one graph that ate the AI timelines discourse, and why the two people who built it are the most careful about how you read it.**SPONSOR**Prolific - Quality data. From real people. For faster breakthroughs.https://www.prolific.com/?utm_source=mlstInterview: https://youtu.be/cnxZZTl1tkk---Beth Barnes and David Rein from METR on the one graph that ate the AI timelines discourse, and why the people who built it are the most careful about how it gets read.Beth founded METR after leaving OpenAI alignment. David is first author on GPQA and co-author on HCAST and the METR Time Horizons paper. Together they built the measurement Daniel Kokotajlo called the single most important piece of evidence on AI timelines: the log-linear line of "how long a task a frontier model can complete at 50% reliability" vs release date.The conversation opens on reward hacking. Current models can articulate in chat why a behaviour is undesired and then execute it anyway as agents. From there: construct validity, Melanie Mitchell's four-problem taxonomy, and the ARC-AGI 1-to-2 collapse as a worked example of adversarially-selected benchmarks regressing once labs target them. Beth's counter: METR deliberately does not adversarially select. David's: models do not have to do the right thing for the right reasons.Methodology, then specification — David's compiler analogy, Beth on four-month tasks as expensive to evaluate rather than unspecifiable. Then the SWE-bench reality check, the METR finding that half of passing PRs would not be merged, and Beth's horses-versus-bank-tellers analogy for the labour market.The close: monitorability, the coin-spinning boat, two-year recursive self-improvement, and Beth's line that "overhyped now" and "big deal later" are not correlated claims.---TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Intro00:02:06 Sponsor break: Prolific human-feedback infrastructure00:02:33 Welcome and the scalable oversight motivation00:06:02 Construct validity, benchmark pathologies and the Chollet worry00:15:45 Time Horizons: human time, HCAST tasks and the 50% logistic00:24:50 Is human difficulty really one variable?00:33:05 Agent harness evolution and the inference-compute dividend00:40:00 Scaffolding bells, token budgets and the credit-assignment problem00:44:15 Look at the damn graph: regularisation bug and reliability nuance00:50:00 Why 50%? Reliability, reward hacking and pizza-party transcripts00:55:20 Extrapolation risk and straight lines on graphs00:59:25 Software engineering as a specification acquisition problem01:07:40 Compilers also made ugly code: vibe-coding quality and Claude on METR Slack01:15:15 Strongest defensible claim, Carlini's compiler swarm and AI 202701:23:45 SWE-bench merge rates, the bank-teller analogy and horses01:31:45 Scheming, alignment faking and the mentalistic vocabulary problem01:40:45 Reward hacking, monitorability and chain-of-thought faithfulness01:45:25 Recursive self-improvement, knowledge vs intelligence and closing
    ReScript: https://app.rescript.info/public/share/de3bb40cc02ee39fdf36e2c60366eb4d
    (PDF, refs, transcript etc)
Altri podcast di Tecnologia
Su Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)
Welcome! We engage in fascinating discussions with pre-eminent figures in the AI field. Our flagship show covers current affairs in AI, cognitive science, neuroscience and philosophy of mind with in-depth analysis. Our approach is unrivalled in terms of scope and rigour – we believe in intellectual diversity in AI, and we touch on all of the main ideas in the field with the hype surgically removed. MLST is run by Tim Scarfe, Ph.D (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ecsquizor/) and features regular appearances from MIT Doctor of Philosophy Keith Duggar (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-keith-duggar/).
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