For all the doomsaying about US President Donald Trump's trade and economic policies, the world's biggest economy has held up relatively well, at least on the surface. Markets are up, trade demand remains firm and the Federal Reserve is moving toward interest rate cuts, which could spur more activity. But Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, warns that the worst is yet to come. Global exports that surged in the run-up to August’s reciprocal levies are cooling, the US labor market is slowing, and markets will react once the data confirms economists’ warnings, he says. Though the slew of global levies provides some clarity, questions remain over Trump's motivations on trade policy and his tendency to upend matters with one social media post. Okun speaks with John and Katia from Singapore. Join us for Bloomberg's Investment Management Summit in Singapore on Oct. 7, featuring leading investors, asset managers and experts, to unlock insights and strategies for geopolitical volatility, technology innovation and sustainable growth. Also catch John and Katia for a live episode recording with Matthew Michelini, head of Asia-Pacific at Apollo Global Management. See you there!Register here for this exclusive event: https://events.bloombergevents.com/0BAkqmSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Why Stablecoins Matter for Banks and the Dollar
The Genius Act in the US and a new regulatory framework in Hong Kong have helped legitimize stablecoins, potentially setting the stage for increased usage. The two largest issuers of dollar-backed stablecoins, Tether and Circle, hold more than $270 billion in US treasuries. At least one person – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – sees that rising to $2 trillion. This should reinforce the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency while disrupting the global banking and SWIFT payments system, says Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, which has $1.8 billion in digital assets. He breaks down what's next for stablecoins and digital assets – and reveals why his company tokenized a 1708 Stradivarius violin. Siu joins John and Katia on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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China Consumers Are Back, Just in a Different Way
China's consumers are a powerful force – the world's second-biggest spenders after the US. Officials want to harness this to transform the nation into a "mega-sized consumer powerhouse," and there are some initial signs of success with increased spending on home appliances, toys and jewelry. But how sustainable is this uptick in conspicuous consumption, and how much should investors worry about the Chinese consumer being fundamentally changed by the pandemic and real estate crash? Despite policymakers efforts to create a consumer-based economy, it still only accounts for about 39% of GDP, significantly below the OECD average of 54%. This week we take a deep dive into the Chinese consumer with Catherine Lim, senior analyst for consumer and technology at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Anson Bailey, head of Asia Pacific consumer and retail at KPMG. They speak with John and Katia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US tariffs are seen as broadly inflationary at home and disinflationary abroad, so countries across Asia – where central banks have already begun a cycle of easing – face increased pressure on economic growth and prices. The levies loom at a time when China is mired in deflation, and Japan is trying to reinflate prices that are also weak in other Asian economies. Should investors be worried about disinflation across the region? How will that influence central bank decisions? And does it complicate the path forward for Japan's policymakers? Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, joins John and Katia to discuss China's overcapacity, the government's failure to address the issue, how it could export deflation to the region, and Japan's success at engineering price growth.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Chip War Author on Global Fight for Tech Supremacy
Advanced semiconductors, the tiny components crucial for everything from smartphones to national defense, are at the heart of US-China geopolitical rivalry. It's no wonder, then, that the US has increasingly restricted China's access to these chips, while Beijing fights back with its own trade barriers. So where are we in the great chip war? Why are they so important and difficult to make? And what are the prospects for new alliances as chip-hungry countries navigate the new AI world? Chris Miller, author of Chip War and professor of international history at Tufts University, sits down with John and Katia for a crash course on this technology and what lies ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Some of the world's largest and fastest-growing markets, economies and companies are in Asia. Every Thursday, John Lee from Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva from Bloomberg News speak with experts and newsmakers about the big ideas and trends moving money across the region.
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