More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.
(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.
(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?
(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City
Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics
Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup
Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University
James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel Numberphile
Special Guest Appearance:
The Voice of Werner Herzog
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

This year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.
But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?
To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time.
If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.
(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).
(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)
(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol
Returning Special Guest appearance:
Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media:

‘The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’.

The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums.

The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from Malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea.

From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here?

We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, Chief Medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Duncan Hannant

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?
(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.
(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability?
(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr  Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research.
Special guest appearance:
Elis James
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill