The Generalist

• Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity: Lessons from AI, Pandemics, and Nuclear Threats | Toby Ord (Author of "The Precipice")

  How close are we to the end of humanity? Toby Ord, Senior Researcher at Oxford University’s AI Governance Initiative and author of The Precipice, argues that the odds of a civilization-ending catastrophe this century are roughly one in six. In this wide-ranging conversation, we unpack the risks that could end humanity’s story and explore why protecting future generations may be our greatest moral duty.We explore:• Why existential risk matters and what we owe the 10,000-plus generations who came before us• Why Toby believes we face a one-in-six chance of civilizational collapse this century• The four key types of AI risk: alignment failures, gradual disempowerment, AI-fueled coups, and AI-enabled weapons of mass destruction• Why racing dynamics between companies and nations amplify those risks, and how an AI treaty might help• How short-term incentives in democracies blind us to century-scale dangers, along with policy ideas to fix it• The lessons COVID should have taught us (but didn’t)• The hidden ways the nuclear threat has intensified as treaties lapse and geopolitical tensions rise• Concrete steps each of us can take today to steer humanity away from the brink—Transcript: https://www.generalist.com/p/existential-risk-and-the-future-of-humanity-toby-ord—This episode is brought to you by Brex: The banking solution for startups.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(02:20) An explanation of existential risk, and the study of it(06:20) How Toby’s interest in global poverty sparked his founding of Giving What We Can(11:18) Why Toby chose to study under Derek Parfit at Oxford(14:40) Population ethics, and how Parfit’s philosophy looked ahead to future generations(19:05) An introduction to existential risk(22:40) Why we should care about the continued existence of humans(28:53) How fatherhood sparked Toby’s gratitude to his parents and previous generations(31:57) An explanation of how LLMs and agents work(40:10) The four types of AI risks(46:58) How humans justify bad choices: lessons from the Manhattan Project(51:29) A breakdown of the “unilateralist’s curse” and a case for an AI treaty(1:02:15) Covid’s impact on our understanding of pandemic risk(1:08:51) The shortcomings of our democracies and ways to combat our short-term focus(1:14:50) Final meditations—Follow Toby OrdWebsite: https://www.tobyord.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobyordX: https://x.com/tobyordoxford?lang=enGiving What We Can: https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/—Resources and episode mentions—Books—• The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0316484911• Reasons and Persons: https://www.amazon.com/Reasons-Persons-Derek-Parfit/dp/019824908X• Practical Ethics: https://www.amazon.com/Practical-Ethics-Peter-Singer/dp/052143971X—People—• Derek Parfit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Parfit• Carl Sagan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan• Stuart Russell: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_J._Russell—Other resources—• DeepMind: https://deepmind.google/• OpenAI: https://openai.com/• Manhattan Project: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project• The Unilateralist’s Curse and the Case for a Principle of Conformity: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 1968: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/npt• The Blitz: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blitz• Operation Warp Speed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed—Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

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  1:19:08
• Are We Alone In The Universe? Sara Seager on Exoplanets, Venus, and the Hunt for Alien Life (Astrophysicist and Planetary Scientist at MIT)

  Why search for life beyond Earth? For MIT astrophysicist and MacArthur Genius Fellow Sara Seager, it’s not just a scientific question—it’s a deeply human one. Like creating art or studying philosophy, the search taps into our primal curiosity about who we are and whether we’re alone. Sara is a pioneer in the field of exoplanets: planets that orbit stars other than our Sun. Her early work was met with skepticism. Today, she’s one of the most respected voices in the field, with discoveries that have redefined our understanding of the universe. From detecting alien atmospheres to reimagining where life might exist, she shares how entrepreneurial thinking and intuition are fueling groundbreaking discoveries.In our conversation, we explore:• An explanation of exoplanets and the importance of their discovery• The key technologies that enabled exoplanet detection• Sara’s controversial discovery of phosphine gas in Venus's atmosphere and why it could be a sign of life• An overview of Project Starshade, why NASA has currently shelved it, and why Sara continues to work on it anyway• How scientific innovation often requires challenging authority and conventional wisdom• How Sara approaches her research portfolio like an investment strategy, but with an inverse risk profile• Why AI may someday explore planets we’ll never reach—and what that means for humanity• Much more!—For a full transcript of the episode, please visit: https://www.generalist.com/p/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-sara-seager—Thank you to the partners who make this possibleAugment Code: AI coding assistant that pro engineering teams love.Brex: The banking solution for startups.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(04:07) What is an exoplanet?(04:33) The diverse types of exoplanets, including the common Sub-Neptune type(06:40) Why the search for habitable planets matters(08:57) The timeline for finding life outside of Earth(10:15) Parallels between professors and entrepreneurs(11:37) Sara’s background and inspirations(15:48) Why the study of exoplanets was initially viewed with skepticism(18:38) Technology breakthroughs enabling exoplanet discovery(21:05) Looking for atmospheric signals as signs of life(25:48) The K2-18b debate and challenges of detecting life(31:10) The Venus Life Finder Initiative and phosphine discovery(37:38) The mission to explore Venus's atmosphere(39:20) Goals of the first missions and the inspiration from a prior Soviet balloon mission(41:58) An overview of the Starshade project(47:44) Applications from the Venus mission that may benefit Earth(48:50) Sara's scientific "investment portfolio" and the impact of the MacArthur grant(52:46) The power of intuition(56:09) Formative lessons from Sara’s childhood(59:04) How Sara uses AI for administrative tasks(01:00:38) The evolution of AI(01:01:50) Sara’s speculation on life beyond Earth(01:03:24) Where Sara's best ideas come from(01:04:02) Final meditations—Follow Sara SeagerLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sara-seager-1352b85/Website: https://www.saraseager.com/—Resources and episode mentions—Books—• The Smallest Lights in the Universe: A Memoir: https://www.amazon.com/Smallest-Lights-Universe-Memoir/dp/0525576258• The Giver: https://www.amazon.com/Giver-Quartet-Lois-Lowry/dp/0544336267—People—• John Bahcall: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_N._Bahcall—Other resources—• Exoplanets: https://science.nasa.gov/exoplanets/• Sub-Neptune: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-Neptune• NASA’s Asteroid Bennu Sample Reveals Mix of Life’s Ingredients: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-asteroid-bennu-sample-reveals-mix-of-lifes-ingredients/• Seager Hair Transplant Centre: https://www.seagerhairtransplant.com/• Kepler: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/kepler/...Resources continued at: https://www.generalist.com/p/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-sara-seager—Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

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  1:07:22
• Antimemetics: Why Some Ideas Resist Spreading | Nadia Asparouhova (Writer and Researcher)

  Some ideas spread like wildfire. Others vanish before they take root—too strange, too threatening, too forgettable. In this episode of The Generalist, I sit down with Nadia Asparouhova, author of Antimemetics: Why Some Ideas Resist Spreading, to explore the category of “antimemes”: ideas that actively resist being remembered or shared. Drawing from science fiction, epidemiology, and her own unusual cognitive wiring, Nadia maps the shadowy terrain of information that doesn’t want to be shared. We talk about taboos, group chat dynamics, and the hidden incentives shaping what spreads and what doesn’t.In our conversation, we explore:• What antimemes are and why some ideas actively resist being remembered or shared• How taboos, cognitive biases, and uncomfortable truths function as self-censoring ideas• The 2x2 matrix of ideas: memes, antimemes, supermemes, and forgettable non-memes• How group chats are changing idea evolution by acting as high-trust, high-density incubators• How internet slang terms like “vibes” and “cringe” reflect deeper shifts in how we share information• Why great innovation often comes from people willing to look foolish• The critical roles of "truth tellers" and "champions" in preserving important ideas• How memory, aphantasia, and synesthesia shaped Nadia’s sensitivity to forgotten ideas• How local knowledge (wisdom) differs from global knowledge (facts), and why it’s harder to pass down• How Nadia’s experience as a parent shifted her thinking from nurture to nature• How to protect your mental space in an age of information overload—Thank you to the partners who make this possibleWorkOS: The modern identity platform for B2B SaaS.Brex: The banking solution for startups.Generalist+: Essential intelligence for modern investors and technologists.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(04:45) A brief overview of Nadia’s writing(06:24) Richard Dawkins’s definition of a meme(08:02) Antimemes and a brief overview of the book There Is No Antimemetics Division(11:54) Why daylight savings time is the perfect antimeme(13:13) How neurodivergence shapes Nadia’s creativity(16:20) Synesthesia explained(18:02) Solomon Shereshevsky, a case of extreme synesthesia(18:52) Why forgetting can be a superpower(22:45) Why some ideas spread and others do not(25:11) The 2x2 matrix of ideas(27:20) A warning about supermemes(29:43) Group chats and the evolution of ideas(34:44) Are supermemes organic or engineered?(40:43) The role of truth tellers and champions(45:38) What it means to have “purity of purpose”(46:48) Nadia’s experience with altered states of consciousness, and an example of a champion(51:02) How Nadia’s fear of sharing has lessened, and a case for examining your own fears(52:51) Understanding the internet slang words “vibes” and “cringe”(57:35) Global vs. local knowledge and how it shapes Nadia’s parenting(1:05:01) Where Nadia finds her ideas(1:08:40) How Nadia protects her time to allow for deep work(1:12:38) Final meditations—Follow Nadia AsparouhovaNewsletter: https://nayafia.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nadia-asparouhova/X: https://x.com/nayafia—Resources and episode mentions—Books—• Antimemetics: Why Some Ideas Resist Spreading: https://www.amazon.com/Antimemetics-Some-Ideas-Resist-Spreading-ebook/dp/B0F8J9HHCB• There Is No Antimemetics Division: https://www.amazon.com/There-No-Antimemetics-Division-qntm/dp/B0915M7T61\• A Primer for Forgetting: Getting Past the Past: https://www.amazon.com/Primer-Forgetting-Getting-Past/dp/0374237212• René Girard's Mimetic Theory: https://www.amazon.com/Girards-Mimetic-Studies-Violence-Mimesis/dp/1611860776...Episode resources continued at: https://www.generalist.com/p/antimemetics-nadia-asparouhova—Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

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  1:19:24
• Creating Stars in a Bottle: The Race to Commercialize Fusion Energy | Vinod Khosla & Bob Mumgaard

  While the world fights over chips, one company is building the power supply to run them all. In this episode of The Generalist, I'm joined by Bob Mumgaard, CEO and co-founder of Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), and Vinod Khosla, legendary venture capitalist and founder of Khosla Ventures. With over 800 employees and $2 billion in funding, CFS has accelerated the timeline for commercial fusion from being perpetually "30 years away" to potentially just a few years out. If CFS succeeds, it will unlock limitless clean energy for humanity, powering everything from AI to water desalination.In our conversation, we explore:• How fusion could transform everything from AI to water desalination and agriculture• The fundamental science behind fusion energy and how it differs from traditional nuclear fission• The breakthrough in magnet technology that changed the timeline for fusion• The strategic approach of partnering with existing power plant operators to rapidly scale fusion deployment• Why fusion is essential for powering AI and other energy-intensive innovations• CFS’s method for creating fusion using magnetic fields• The final hurdles to completing SPARC, the company’s demonstration reactor• The six-stage roadmap for fusion development, where CFS currently stands, and when they expect to begin delivering power to the grid• What clean energy could make possible for future technologies and industries• The geopolitical implications of a world with abundant clean energy• Much more—Transcript: https://www.generalist.com/p/creating-stars-in-a-bottle—Thank you to the partners who make this possible⁠Brex⁠: The banking solution for startups.⁠Generalist+⁠: Essential intelligence for modern investors and technologists.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(04:13) An overview of fusion energy, and why it’s so important(08:23) The connection between AI and fusion energy(10:20) How Bob became interested in fusion(13:06) The importance of entrepreneurs in bringing crazy ideas to life(14:55) The advancement in magnets that caused the leap in fusion technology(17:33) The extreme conditions required for fusion(19:46) What made Vinod interested in funding CFS(21:30) The alternatives that CFS looked at if the magnet hadn’t worked(25:18) Different methods for creating fusion(27:43) Bob’s entrepreneurial lens for fusion at scale(31:52) CFS’s strategy of partnering with existing power infrastructure(35:32) An overview of ARC and SPARC(40:03) Final hurdles to complete SPARC(42:29) The six-stage roadmap for fusion development(46:11) What clean energy unlocks(48:06) Entrepreneurial opportunities for supporting fusion power(50:43) Final meditations—Follow Vinod KhoslaLinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/vinod-khosla-65387416/⁠X: ⁠https://x.com/vkhosla⁠—Follow Bob MumgaardLinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/mumgaard/⁠X: ⁠https://x.com/BobMumgaard⁠—Resources and episode mentions—Books—• Unweaving The Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder: ⁠https://www.amazon.com/Unweaving-Rainbow-Science-Delusion-Appetite/dp/0618056734⁠• The Intel Trinity: How Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove Built the World's Most Important Company: ⁠https://www.amazon.com/Intel-Trinity-Robert-Important-Company/dp/0062226762⁠—People—• Elon Musk on X: ⁠https://x.com/elonmusk⁠—Other resources—• Commonwealth Fusion Systems: ⁠https://cfs.energy/⁠• Sun Microsystems: ⁠https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Microsystems⁠• OpenAI: ⁠https://openai.com/⁠• Moore’s Law: ⁠https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law⁠• The Hunt for Red October: ⁠https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099810/⁠• Magnetohydrodynamic drive: ⁠https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamic_drive⁠• ITER: ⁠https://www.iter.org/⁠...Resources continued at: https://www.generalist.com/p/creating-stars-in-a-bottle—Production and marketing by ⁠penname.co⁠. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

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  55:12
• The Semiconductor Century with Chris Miller (Author of “Chip War”)

  What really determines success in the age of AI? Is it better models or broader reach? Chris Miller, author of the bestselling book Chip War, explains how semiconductors have become the strategic center of gravity for global power, economics, and innovation. As a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, Chris has spent nearly a decade studying how chips are reshaping geopolitics and why they're essential to understanding everything from military capabilities to artificial intelligence.In our conversation, we explore:• Why diffusion and adoption of technology are more important markers of impact than actual capabilities• What most people got wrong about DeepSeek's breakthrough, but why China's AI talent still matters• Huawei's surprising transformation from telecom giant to potential AI powerhouse• The critical role India and Southeast Asia may play in chip manufacturing• How the Trump administration's policies will impact the technological battle• Why China will likely achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency in mainstream chips within five years• Barriers to rebuilding a domestic chip industry in the US• The massive infrastructure investments being made in AI computing power• The implications of Stargate• And much more!—For a full transcript of the episode, please visit: https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/the-semiconductor-century-with-chris-miller—Thank you to the partners who make this possibleGeneralist+: Essential intelligence for modern investors and technologists.Explo: Customer-facing analytics for any platform.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(04:06) A brief overview of Chip War(06:10) Why Chris believes we are on the cusp of a new technological era(08:03) Why the diffusion of technology is the true marker of impact(09:29) Chris’s thoughts on enterprise adoption of AI(11:03) Chris's personal use of AI tools(12:24) The significance of DeepSeek and China's AI capabilities(17:05) The main players in the Chinese AI space(18:34) A case for Huawei as a full-stack player(20:33) LLM price trends, and why DeepSeek isn't assured to win emerging markets(22:19) Key drivers of software success, and how that might translate to AI(24:42) US AI market: Chris's insights on who will gain dominance(27:38) The concept of sovereign AI models and their viability(32:33) Trump vs. Biden on AI policy(34:52) Progress in diversifying semiconductor manufacturing(37:04) The challenges facing Intel and its future(38:55) What to watch for in the semiconductor race, and China’s move towards self-sufficiency(45:09) The advanced packaging trend(46:34) Solving for increased energy needs(50:05) The implications of the Stargate project, and what we still don’t know(52:44) The motivation behind Silicon Valley empire builders(56:10) AI's unique appeal to tech leaders' ambitions(58:03) Final meditations—Follow Chris MillerLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-miller-93004923/Twitter: https://x.com/crmiller1Website: https://www.christophermiller.net/—Resources and episode mentions—Books—• Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology: https://www.amazon.com/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Technology/dp/1982172002• Isaac Newton: https://www.amazon.com/Isaac-Newton-James-Gleick/dp/1400032954• A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains: https://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Intelligence-Humans-Breakthroughs/dp/0063286343/For a full list of resources and episode mentions, please visit: https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/the-semiconductor-century-with-chris-miller—Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

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  1:04:21

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